ATP tennis predict — Hayato Matsuoka vs Alexander Shevchenko

ATP Hard Asian Games · QF 06:00

Predicted probability

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

28.03%

Alexander Shevchenko

Kazakhstan

71.97%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Shevchenko is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1787 vs 1644), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1727 vs 1630) and a stronger serve (64.8% vs 57.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1644 Elo 1787.4

1629.9 Elo (surface) 1726.8

1 Wins 90

1 Wins (surface) 54

1 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.105 Dominance ratio 1.105

243 Rank 109

21.7 Age 25.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alexander Shevchenko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Alexander Shevchenko

1st Serve In %

—

57.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

55.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.3%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

39.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hayato Matsuoka Alexander Shevchenko

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

70.5%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hayato Matsuoka and Alexander Shevchenko have never played each other.

Hayato Matsuoka vs Alexander Shevchenko — Prediction