ATP tennis predict — Harry Wendelken vs Murphy Cassone

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Harry Wendelken

Great Britain

44.23%

Murphy Cassone

USA

55.77%

Average Odds

2.22 / 1.61

Market probability

42.04% / 57.96%

Why This Prediction?

Murphy Cassone is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1642 vs 1549), more wins on hard courts (8 vs 0) and a better head-to-head record against Harry Wendelken (1-0).

Player Comparison

1549.5 Elo 1641.9

1691.9 Elo (surface) 1627.8

45 Wins (Challenger) 80

39 Wins (surface) 72

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.109 Dominance ratio 0.811

205 Rank 285

24.6 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Harry Wendelken

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Murphy Cassone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harry Wendelken Murphy Cassone

1st Serve In %

54.8%

67.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.6%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.9%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harry Wendelken Murphy Cassone

Break Points Saved %

68.0%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%

48.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

57.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Harry Wendelken 0 – 1 Murphy Cassone

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-29

1. round

Harry Wendelken #205

Murphy Cassone #285

6-5

4 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 1

34 Service Points 43

20 First Serve In 28

16 First Serve Won 17

6 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Grass Ilkley CH · 2025-06-09

Q2

Murphy Cassone #194

Harry Wendelken #502

7-6(6) 6-4

6 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

74 Service Points 77

52 First Serve In 47

37 First Serve Won 31

10 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Harry Wendelken vs Murphy Cassone — Prediction