ATP tennis predict — Harold Mayot vs Tristan Schoolkate

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · R16 19:00

Predicted probability

Harold Mayot

France

60.09%

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

39.91%

Average Odds

1.57 / 2.29

Market probability

59.33% / 40.67%

Why This Prediction?

Harold Mayot is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1806 vs 1729), a higher Elo rating (1804 vs 1761) and a stronger return game (42.0% vs 35.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1803.6 Elo 1761.3

1805.9 Elo (surface) 1728.8

144 Wins (Challenger) 122

97 Wins (surface) 103

12 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 2

1.099 Dominance ratio 1.009

191 Rank 153

24.6 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Harold Mayot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–7L · 58.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

34 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Tristan Schoolkate

1st Serve In %

63.9%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.4%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Tristan Schoolkate

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

65.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Harold Mayot 1 – 2 Tristan Schoolkate

Hard Rennes challenger · 2026-09-19

SF

Harold Mayot #288

Tristan Schoolkate #165

6-3 6-3

4 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

20 First Serve Won 32

12 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2

Grass Ilkley CH · 2025-06-09

R32

Tristan Schoolkate #131

Harold Mayot #156

3-6 7-5 7-5

10 Aces 9

8 Double Faults 5

103 Service Points 103

58 First Serve In 65

40 First Serve Won 46

23 Second Serve Won 19

7 Break Points Saved 7

10 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Lincoln CH · 2024-08-05

R16

Tristan Schoolkate #202

Harold Mayot #112

6-1 6-4

4 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

52 Service Points 47

23 First Serve In 34

17 First Serve Won 20

20 Second Serve Won 3

1 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Harold Mayot vs Tristan Schoolkate — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Harold Mayot — Last 10

Tristan Schoolkate — Last 10