ATP tennis predict — Harold Mayot vs Murphy Cassone

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · SF 14:00

Predicted probability

Harold Mayot

France

56.07%

Murphy Cassone

USA

43.93%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.35

Market probability

60.26% / 39.74%

Why This Prediction?

Harold Mayot is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1796 vs 1713), a higher Elo rating (1795 vs 1719) and a stronger return game (42.0% vs 34.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1795.1 Elo 1719.5

1796.2 Elo (surface) 1712.7

142 Wins (Challenger) 86

95 Wins (surface) 78

12 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.099 Dominance ratio 0.906

237 Rank 318

24.6 Age 24.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Harold Mayot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–7L · 56.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Murphy Cassone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Murphy Cassone

1st Serve In %

63.9%

67.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.4%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

68.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Murphy Cassone

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

48.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.5%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.9%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Harold Mayot 1 – 0 Murphy Cassone

Hard Rennes challenger · 2026-09-16

R16

Harold Mayot #288

Murphy Cassone #330

-

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Harold Mayot vs Murphy Cassone — Prediction