ATP tennis predict — Harold Mayot vs Justin Boulais

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 14:10

Predicted probability

Harold Mayot

France

76.23%

Justin Boulais

Canada

23.77%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.70

Market probability

74.75% / 25.25%

Why This Prediction?

Harold Mayot is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1762 vs 1555), a higher Elo rating (1762 vs 1566) and a stronger return game (42.0% vs 38.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1762.4 Elo 1566.3

1762.0 Elo (surface) 1554.8

139 Wins (Challenger) 48

92 Wins (surface) 48

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.099 Dominance ratio 1.041

237 Rank 418

24.6 Age 24.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Harold Mayot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–7L · 56.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Justin Boulais

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Justin Boulais

1st Serve In %

63.9%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

60.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.4%

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.5%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.7%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.2%

34.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

68.2%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Justin Boulais

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

67.7%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Harold Mayot 0 – 0 Justin Boulais

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Harold Mayot #237

Justin Boulais #418

6-4 2-6 7-6

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

48 First Serve Won 41

9 Second Serve Won 19

7 Break Points Saved 5

12 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Harold Mayot vs Justin Boulais — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Harold Mayot — Last 10

Justin Boulais — Last 10