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Harold Mayot vs Jesper De Jong — Prediction

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · QF 12:30

Predicted probability

Harold Mayot

France

43.58%

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

56.42%

Average Odds

1.94  /  1.79

Market probability

47.99%  /  52.01%

Why This Prediction?

Jesper De Jong is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1852 vs 1780), a stronger return game (39.4% vs 30.9% of return points won) and a stronger serve (65.8% vs 61.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1780.3 Elo 1852.0
1783.7 Elo (surface) 1731.5
141 Wins (Challenger) 142
94 Wins (surface) 31
11 Last 15 form 12
1 Head-to-head wins 3
1.099 Dominance ratio 1.368
237 Rank 95
24.6 Age 26.3
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Harold Mayot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–7L · 56.2%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Jesper De Jong

1st Serve In %

63.9%
59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%
75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%
46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%
31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.4%
52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.60
0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33
0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—
58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
38.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
56.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.35
0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18
0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Jesper De Jong

Break Points Saved %

64.1%
59.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%
35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.6%
64.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%
45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Harold Mayot 1 – 3 Jesper De Jong

Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

Q2

Jesper De Jong #83

Harold Mayot #152

7-6(11) 6-7(4) 6-3
14 Aces 6
5 Double Faults 7
119 Service Points 135
68 First Serve In 83
51 First Serve Won 56
25 Second Serve Won 24
1 Break Points Saved 15
5 Break Points Faced 20
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rome Masters · 2025-05-07

Q1

Jesper De Jong #93

Harold Mayot #144

6-2 6-4
6 Aces 1
1 Double Faults 2
59 Service Points 58
35 First Serve In 32
27 First Serve Won 16
10 Second Serve Won 12
2 Break Points Saved 2
4 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Murcia CH · 2025-03-17

QF

Jesper De Jong #105

Harold Mayot #132

W/O
0 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 0
0 Service Points 0
0 First Serve In 0
0 First Serve Won 0
0 Second Serve Won 0
0 Break Points Saved 0
0 Break Points Faced 0
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Noumea CH · 2024-01-01

QF

Harold Mayot #166

Jesper De Jong #153

3-6 7-5 6-4
10 Aces 12
3 Double Faults 4
108 Service Points 94
67 First Serve In 63
47 First Serve Won 46
19 Second Serve Won 14
11 Break Points Saved 3
14 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Harold Mayot — Last 10

W W L W W W W L W W

Jesper De Jong — Last 10

W W L W L L W W L L