ATP tennis predict — Harold Mayot vs Gustavo Heide

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Harold Mayot

France

62.52%

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

37.48%

Average Odds

1.85 / 1.83

Market probability

49.73% / 50.27%

Why This Prediction?

Harold Mayot is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1653 vs 1452), more wins on hard courts (83 vs 11) and a stronger return game (43.6% vs 38.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1628.7 Elo 1708.3

1652.9 Elo (surface) 1451.5

130 Wins (Challenger) 98

83 Wins (surface) 11

7 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.230 Dominance ratio 1.015

252 Rank 133

24.5 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Harold Mayot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–7L · 56.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Gustavo Heide

1st Serve In %

63.9%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.4%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.5%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.7%

65.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.2%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

68.2%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Harold Mayot Gustavo Heide

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

27.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

67.7%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Harold Mayot 0 – 0 Gustavo Heide

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-17

1. round

Harold Mayot #252

Gustavo Heide #133

6-3 6-2

6 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 6

53 Service Points 52

32 First Serve In 27

22 First Serve Won 15

12 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Harold Mayot vs Gustavo Heide — Prediction