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Hanyi Liu vs Kaichi Uchida — Prediction

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 1. round 07:45

Predicted probability

Hanyi Liu

China

26.07%

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

73.93%

Average Odds

2.45  /  1.50

Market probability

37.97%  /  62.03%

Why This Prediction?

Kaichi Uchida is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1474 vs 1263), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1509 vs 1276) and more wins on hard courts (136 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1263.5 Elo 1474.4
1276.2 Elo (surface) 1508.8
6 Wins (Challenger) 165
6 Wins (surface) 136
4 Last 15 form 3
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.792 Dominance ratio 0.852
912 Rank 277
25.3 Age 32.0
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hanyi Liu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Kaichi Uchida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hanyi Liu Kaichi Uchida

1st Serve In %

70.7%
62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%
71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

35.3%
47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.0%
29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%
48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.10
0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.6%
55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%
65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.9%
45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.7%
27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%
45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.38
0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10
0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hanyi Liu Kaichi Uchida

Break Points Saved %

33.3%
63.2%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%
33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.1%
46.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.5%
34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hanyi Liu 00 Kaichi Uchida

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-08-31

1. round

Hanyi Liu #912

Kaichi Uchida #277

3-6 6-3 6-2
10 Aces 10
0 Double Faults 1
74 Service Points 76
61 First Serve In 47
43 First Serve Won 30
8 Second Serve Won 15
7 Break Points Saved 1
9 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Hanyi Liu — Last 10

L W L W L W L W L L

Kaichi Uchida — Last 10

L L L L L L L L L L