ATP tennis predict — Hamad Medjedovic vs Marco Trungelliti

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Hamad Medjedovic

Serbia

75.59%

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

24.41%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.87

Market probability

67.06% / 32.94%

Why This Prediction?

Hamad Medjedovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1731 vs 1513), a higher Elo rating (1759 vs 1672) and a stronger serve (65.2% vs 58.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1759.4 Elo 1672.2

1730.8 Elo (surface) 1513.1

83 Wins 130

37 Wins (surface) 47

10 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.965 Dominance ratio 0.948

73 Rank 90

23.1 Age 36.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Hamad Medjedovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hamad Medjedovic Marco Trungelliti

1st Serve In %

63.6%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.82

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.8%

66.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

38.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.1%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Hamad Medjedovic Marco Trungelliti

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

26.4%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.8%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Hamad Medjedovic 1 – 0 Marco Trungelliti

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Marco Trungelliti #90

Hamad Medjedovic #73

7-5 7-6

10 Aces 14

9 Double Faults 5

99 Service Points 68

56 First Serve In 39

36 First Serve Won 30

20 Second Serve Won 18

9 Break Points Saved 1

12 Break Points Faced 3

23 Winners 26

56 Unforced Errors 24

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Barcelona · 2026-04-13

R32

Hamad Medjedovic #88

Marco Trungelliti #79

7-5 6-4

10 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 3

62 Service Points 65

43 First Serve In 35

34 First Serve Won 25

10 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hamad Medjedovic vs Marco Trungelliti — Prediction