ATP tennis predict — Guy Den Ouden vs Ryan Nijboer

Challenger Clay Bunschoten challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Guy Den Ouden

Netherlands

57.70%

Ryan Nijboer

Netherlands

42.30%

Average Odds

1.22 / 4.02

Market probability

76.72% / 23.28%

Why This Prediction?

Guy Den Ouden is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1696 vs 1631), fewer double faults per game (0.13 vs 0.20) and a higher Elo rating (1621 vs 1604).

Player Comparison

1621.4 Elo 1603.6

1696.3 Elo (surface) 1631.3

65 Wins (Challenger) 49

58 Wins (surface) 45

8 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.965 Dominance ratio 1.073

231 Rank 488

24.3 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Guy Den Ouden

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Ryan Nijboer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Guy Den Ouden Ryan Nijboer

1st Serve In %

61.6%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.3%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

43.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.0%

34.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

41.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Guy Den Ouden Ryan Nijboer

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

68.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

51.5%

Break Points Converted %

49.3%

44.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Guy Den Ouden 0 – 0 Ryan Nijboer

Clay Bunschoten challenger · 2026-07-17

QF

Guy Den Ouden #231

Ryan Nijboer #488

6-4 7-6

3 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 1

67 Service Points 62

45 First Serve In 35

27 First Serve Won 24

10 Second Serve Won 15

5 Break Points Saved 1

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Guy Den Ouden vs Ryan Nijboer — Prediction