ATP tennis predict — Guy Den Ouden vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Guy Den Ouden

Netherlands

52.12%

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

47.88%

Average Odds

1.54 / 2.35

Market probability

60.41% / 39.59%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1678.0 Elo 1683.3

1752.3 Elo (surface) 1709.0

68 Wins (Challenger) 138

61 Wins (surface) 136

11 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.055 Dominance ratio 0.984

195 Rank 297

24.3 Age 25.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Guy Den Ouden

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Guy Den Ouden Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

1st Serve In %

61.6%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.3%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.7%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.0%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Guy Den Ouden Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

25.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

49.3%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Guy Den Ouden 1 – 0 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #297

Guy Den Ouden #195

6-3 6-3

0 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 65

34 First Serve In 36

19 First Serve Won 26

17 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Clay Bunschoten CH · 2025-07-14

R32

Guy Den Ouden #184

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #279

6-3 3-6 6-4

3 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 1

89 Service Points 96

55 First Serve In 67

38 First Serve Won 44

15 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 8

6 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Guy Den Ouden vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Prediction