ATP tennis predict — Guy Den Ouden vs Alexandre Muller

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Guy Den Ouden

Netherlands

57.93%

Alexandre Muller

France

42.07%

Average Odds

1.78 / 1.95

Market probability

52.28% / 47.72%

Why This Prediction?

Guy Den Ouden is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1730 vs 1622), a higher Elo rating (1660 vs 1645) and better recent form (10 wins in his last 15 matches vs 8).

Player Comparison

1660.2 Elo 1644.5

1729.7 Elo (surface) 1622.1

68 Wins (Challenger) 175

61 Wins (surface) 116

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.072 Dominance ratio 1.066

195 Rank 132

24.3 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Guy Den Ouden

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Guy Den Ouden Alexandre Muller

1st Serve In %

61.6%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.3%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.7%

75.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.0%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Guy Den Ouden Alexandre Muller

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

49.3%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Guy Den Ouden 0 – 0 Alexandre Muller

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-03

1. round

Guy Den Ouden #222

Alexandre Muller #135

7-5 6-2

5 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 4

62 Service Points 78

34 First Serve In 51

26 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Guy Den Ouden vs Alexandre Muller — Prediction