ATP tennis predict — Gustavo Heide vs Tiago Pereira

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · R16 14:00

Predicted probability

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

79.34%

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

20.66%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.05

Market probability

77.00% / 23.00%

Why This Prediction?

Gustavo Heide is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1753 vs 1414), a higher Elo rating (1677 vs 1450) and more wins on clay courts (88 vs 19).

Player Comparison

1677.0 Elo 1450.0

1753.0 Elo (surface) 1413.5

99 Wins (Challenger) 32

88 Wins (surface) 19

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.007 Dominance ratio 1.055

128 Rank 355

24.5 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Tiago Pereira

1st Serve In %

56.4%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

39.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.2%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Tiago Pereira

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

27.5%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gustavo Heide 0 – 0 Tiago Pereira

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-02

R16

Gustavo Heide #128

Tiago Pereira #355

7-5 7-5

0 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 3

77 Service Points 95

45 First Serve In 51

32 First Serve Won 33

20 Second Serve Won 22

4 Break Points Saved 9

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Gustavo Heide vs Tiago Pereira — Prediction