ATP tennis predict — Gustavo Heide vs Thiago Monteiro

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · QF 13:55

Predicted probability

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

54.29%

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

45.71%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.26

Market probability

58.85% / 41.15%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1683.3 Elo 1678.6

1757.0 Elo (surface) 1708.2

100 Wins (Challenger) 253

89 Wins (surface) 239

12 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.103 Dominance ratio 1.359

128 Rank 280

24.5 Age 32.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Thiago Monteiro

1st Serve In %

56.4%

66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.2%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Thiago Monteiro

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

27.5%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gustavo Heide 0 – 1 Thiago Monteiro

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-04

QF

Gustavo Heide #128

Thiago Monteiro #280

6-4 6-3

5 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 2

58 Service Points 63

35 First Serve In 39

24 First Serve Won 24

15 Second Serve Won 11

6 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Campinas CH · 2023-10-02

R32

Thiago Monteiro #150

Gustavo Heide #232

6-3 1-0 RET

3 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 8

33 Service Points 36

18 First Serve In 12

13 First Serve Won 8

11 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gustavo Heide vs Thiago Monteiro — Prediction