ATP tennis predict — Gustavo Heide vs Lautaro Midon

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · QF 15:00

Predicted probability

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

60.21%

Lautaro Midon

Argentina

39.79%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.76

Market probability

66.51% / 33.49%

Why This Prediction?

Gustavo Heide is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1859 vs 1769), a higher Elo rating (1803 vs 1753) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1802.7 Elo 1753.2

1858.8 Elo (surface) 1768.9

105 Wins (Challenger) 77

94 Wins (surface) 68

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.985 Dominance ratio 0.938

122 Rank 200

24.6 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Lautaro Midon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Lautaro Midon

1st Serve In %

56.4%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.6%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

64.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Lautaro Midon

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

27.5%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.7%

35.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gustavo Heide and Lautaro Midon have never played each other.

Gustavo Heide vs Lautaro Midon — Prediction