ATP tennis predict — Gustavo Heide vs Hernan Casanova

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · 1. round 23:45

Predicted probability

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

80.88%

Hernan Casanova

Argentina

19.12%

Average Odds

1.29 / 3.24

Market probability

71.52% / 28.48%

Why This Prediction?

Gustavo Heide is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1843 vs 1627), a higher Elo rating (1786 vs 1616) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1785.5 Elo 1616.4

1842.8 Elo (surface) 1626.8

103 Wins (Challenger) 120

92 Wins (surface) 117

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.985 Dominance ratio 1.144

122 Rank 407

24.6 Age 32.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Hernan Casanova

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Hernan Casanova

1st Serve In %

56.4%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

56.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

52.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

69.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.2%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

40.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Hernan Casanova

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

27.5%

48.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

47.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gustavo Heide 0 – 1 Hernan Casanova

Clay Brasilia CH · 2021-11-22

R32

Hernan Casanova #342

Gustavo Heide #532

5-7 6-1 7-5

0 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 6

89 Service Points 97

56 First Serve In 48

41 First Serve Won 34

16 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 9

6 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gustavo Heide vs Hernan Casanova — Prediction