ATP tennis predict — Gustavo Heide vs Goncalo Marques

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · 1. round 14:00

Predicted probability

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

89.86%

Goncalo Marques

Portugal

10.14%

Average Odds

1.06 / 8.09

Market probability

88.42% / 11.58%

Why This Prediction?

Gustavo Heide is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1671 vs 1448), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1748 vs 1450) and more career match wins (98 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1670.6 Elo 1448.4

1748.2 Elo (surface) 1449.6

98 Wins (Challenger) 0

87 Wins (surface) 0

11 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.959 Dominance ratio 0.946

128 Rank 762

24.5 Age 20.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Goncalo Marques

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Goncalo Marques

1st Serve In %

56.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.35

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

53.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.2%

60.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Goncalo Marques

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

27.5%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gustavo Heide 0 – 0 Goncalo Marques

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-08-31

1. round

Gustavo Heide #128

Goncalo Marques #762

6-4 6-3

3 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

53 Service Points 55

34 First Serve In 29

26 First Serve Won 18

15 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 8.1

Gustavo Heide vs Goncalo Marques — Prediction