ATP tennis predict — Gustavo Heide vs Felipe Meligeni Alves

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · R16 17:15

Predicted probability

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

72.97%

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

27.03%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.30

Market probability

72.05% / 27.95%

Why This Prediction?

Gustavo Heide is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1794 vs 1658), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1850 vs 1693) and a stronger serve (63.7% vs 56.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1793.6 Elo 1657.6

1849.8 Elo (surface) 1692.6

104 Wins (Challenger) 153

93 Wins (surface) 145

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.985 Dominance ratio 0.865

122 Rank 463

24.6 Age 28.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Felipe Meligeni Alves

1st Serve In %

56.4%

67.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

65.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.6%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Felipe Meligeni Alves

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

65.7%

Break Points Converted %

27.5%

30.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.7%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gustavo Heide 0 – 0 Felipe Meligeni Alves

Clay Curitiba challenger · 2026-09-30

R16

Gustavo Heide #122

Felipe Meligeni Alves #463

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

20 First Serve Won 19

18 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Gustavo Heide vs Felipe Meligeni Alves — Prediction