ATP tennis predict — Gustavo Heide vs Facundo Mena

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · SF 13:25

Predicted probability

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

67.61%

Facundo Mena

Argentina

32.39%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.67

Market probability

74.59% / 25.41%

Why This Prediction?

Gustavo Heide is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1771 vs 1659), a higher Elo rating (1698 vs 1621) and a better head-to-head record against Facundo Mena (1-0).

Player Comparison

1697.9 Elo 1620.8

1770.6 Elo (surface) 1658.6

101 Wins (Challenger) 201

90 Wins (surface) 176

12 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.083 Dominance ratio 1.161

128 Rank 306

24.5 Age 34.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Facundo Mena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Facundo Mena

1st Serve In %

56.4%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.2%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.7%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gustavo Heide Facundo Mena

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

27.5%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gustavo Heide 1 – 0 Facundo Mena

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-05

SF

Facundo Mena #306

Gustavo Heide #128

7-6 3-6 6-3

5 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 2

96 Service Points 112

50 First Serve In 67

37 First Serve Won 45

25 Second Serve Won 24

5 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.7 Average Odds 1.2

Clay Rosario CH · 2025-02-03

R32

Gustavo Heide #161

Facundo Mena #186

6-2 3-1 RET

2 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 2

31 Service Points 61

16 First Serve In 39

13 First Serve Won 21

11 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 11

0 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gustavo Heide vs Facundo Mena — Prediction