ATP tennis predict — Gus Grumet vs Daniil Ostapenkov

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · qualification - 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Gus Grumet

USA

13.32%

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

86.68%

Average Odds

4.14 / 1.17

Market probability

22.03% / 77.97%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Ostapenkov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1504 vs 1434), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1459 vs 1417) and better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1434.5 Elo 1504.3

1416.6 Elo (surface) 1459.4

0 Wins (Challenger) 11

0 Wins (surface) 7

0 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.749 Dominance ratio 1.012

1421 Rank 556

18.8 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gus Grumet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-14.

Daniil Ostapenkov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gus Grumet Daniil Ostapenkov

1st Serve In %

—

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

59.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

55.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.8%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.7%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

42.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gus Grumet Daniil Ostapenkov

Break Points Saved %

—

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

63.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

42.9%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

54.5%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gus Grumet 0 – 0 Daniil Ostapenkov

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - 1. round

Daniil Ostapenkov #554

Gus Grumet #1407

6-2 6-2

0 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

19 First Serve Won 18

4 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Gus Grumet vs Daniil Ostapenkov — Prediction