ATP tennis predict — Grigor Dimitrov vs Edas Butvilas

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 17:30

Predicted probability

Grigor Dimitrov

Bulgaria

66.96%

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

33.04%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.78

Market probability

66.51% / 33.49%

Why This Prediction?

Grigor Dimitrov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1972 vs 1730), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1961 vs 1740) and a stronger serve (66.4% vs 58.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1971.7 Elo 1730.3

1961.2 Elo (surface) 1740.2

49 Wins (Challenger) 89

34 Wins (surface) 68

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 0.881

127 Rank 198

35.4 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Grigor Dimitrov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Edas Butvilas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Grigor Dimitrov Edas Butvilas

1st Serve In %

61.1%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Grigor Dimitrov Edas Butvilas

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

46.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Grigor Dimitrov 0 – 0 Edas Butvilas

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Edas Butvilas #198

Grigor Dimitrov #127

7-6 6-3

7 Aces 7

6 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

35 First Serve Won 35

13 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Grigor Dimitrov vs Edas Butvilas — Prediction