ATP tennis predict — Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Rincon

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 15:30

Predicted probability

Grigor Dimitrov

Bulgaria

71.50%

Daniel Rincon

Spain

28.50%

Average Odds

1.23 / 3.84

Market probability

75.74% / 24.26%

Why This Prediction?

Grigor Dimitrov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1959 vs 1728), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1946 vs 1691) and more wins on hard courts (344 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1958.7 Elo 1727.7

1946.2 Elo (surface) 1690.8

49 Wins (Challenger) 108

34 Wins (surface) 32

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 1.016

126 Rank 257

35.4 Age 23.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Grigor Dimitrov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Grigor Dimitrov Daniel Rincon

1st Serve In %

61.1%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Grigor Dimitrov Daniel Rincon

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Grigor Dimitrov and Daniel Rincon have never played each other.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Rincon — Prediction