ATP tennis predict — Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Grigor Dimitrov

Bulgaria

73.11%

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

26.89%

Average Odds

1.49 / 2.64

Market probability

63.92% / 36.08%

Why This Prediction?

Grigor Dimitrov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1849 vs 1564), a higher Elo rating (1818 vs 1676) and more career match wins (517 vs 182).

Player Comparison

1818.0 Elo 1676.0

1849.1 Elo (surface) 1563.8

517 Wins 182

344 Wins (surface) 119

9 Last 15 form 7

2 Head-to-head wins 2

0.880 Dominance ratio 1.106

137 Rank 130

35.3 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Grigor Dimitrov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Grigor Dimitrov Alexei Popyrin

1st Serve In %

61.1%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

77.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

55.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.72

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Grigor Dimitrov Alexei Popyrin

Break Points Saved %

48.3%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

30.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Grigor Dimitrov 2 – 2 Alexei Popyrin

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Alexei Popyrin #130

Grigor Dimitrov #137

3-6 6-3 6-2 6-4

9 Aces 11

14 Double Faults 2

109 Service Points 104

57 First Serve In 69

43 First Serve Won 51

21 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 8

34 Winners 33

37 Unforced Errors 25

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2024-10-02

R32

Grigor Dimitrov #10

Alexei Popyrin #24

7-6(5) 6-2

7 Aces 13

1 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 72

34 First Serve In 49

33 First Serve Won 33

13 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canada Masters · 2024-08-05

R16

Alexei Popyrin #62

Grigor Dimitrov #10

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3

9 Aces 7

6 Double Faults 9

121 Service Points 97

65 First Serve In 58

52 First Serve Won 46

28 Second Serve Won 20

8 Break Points Saved 0

9 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Us Open · 2021-08-30

R64

Alexei Popyrin #73

Grigor Dimitrov #18

7-6(4) 7-6(4) 4-0 RET

12 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 7

94 Service Points 105

57 First Serve In 66

42 First Serve Won 42

23 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Murray River Open · 2021-02-01

R16

Grigor Dimitrov #19

Alexei Popyrin #114

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3

10 Aces 11

4 Double Faults 5

113 Service Points 104

76 First Serve In 62

59 First Serve Won 39

16 Second Serve Won 23

11 Break Points Saved 6

13 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Grigor Dimitrov — Last 10

Alexei Popyrin — Last 10