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Gonzalo Villanueva vs Carlos Maria Zarate — Prediction

Challenger Clay Santa Cruz De La Sierra challenger · 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Gonzalo Villanueva

Argentina

69.13%

Carlos Maria Zarate

Argentina

30.87%

Average Odds

1.04  /  1.04

Market probability

50.00%  /  50.00%

Why This Prediction?

Gonzalo Villanueva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1654 vs 1446), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1669 vs 1467) and more wins on clay courts (173 vs 18).

Player Comparison

1653.8 Elo 1446.2
1668.6 Elo (surface) 1466.7
184 Wins (Challenger) 19
173 Wins (surface) 18
9 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.282 Dominance ratio 1.020
323 Rank 352
31.7 Age 21.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gonzalo Villanueva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Carlos Maria Zarate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gonzalo Villanueva Carlos Maria Zarate

1st Serve In %

58.7%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

63.7%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.2%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%
—

Aces per Service Game

0.11
—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.51
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.8%
62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.2%
63.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%
54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.4%
35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.0%
47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.23
0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gonzalo Villanueva Carlos Maria Zarate

Break Points Saved %

50.0%
—

Break Points Converted %

45.5%
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%
60.6%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%
46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gonzalo Villanueva and Carlos Maria Zarate have never played each other.

Gonzalo Villanueva — Last 10

L L W W L L W L W W

Carlos Maria Zarate — Last 10

L L L L W W L L L W