ATP tennis predict — Gonzalo Bueno vs Tiago Pereira

ATP Clay Estoril · 1. round

Predicted probability

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

84.63%

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

15.37%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.40

Market probability

72.19% / 27.81%

Why This Prediction?

Gonzalo Bueno is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1628 vs 1436), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1655 vs 1399) and more wins on clay courts (97 vs 18).

Player Comparison

1628.3 Elo 1435.6

1655.5 Elo (surface) 1399.2

7 Wins 0

5 Wins (surface) 0

7 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.852 Dominance ratio 1.250

180 Rank 371

22.3 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gonzalo Bueno

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gonzalo Bueno Tiago Pereira

1st Serve In %

61.3%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.4%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

39.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gonzalo Bueno Tiago Pereira

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.9%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gonzalo Bueno 0 – 0 Tiago Pereira

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-21

1. round

Gonzalo Bueno #180

Tiago Pereira #371

6-3 1-6 7-6

1 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 1

95 Service Points 87

58 First Serve In 46

36 First Serve Won 33

16 Second Serve Won 21

6 Break Points Saved 6

11 Break Points Faced 10

26 Winners 26

47 Unforced Errors 39

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Gonzalo Bueno vs Tiago Pereira — Prediction