ATP tennis predict — Gonzalo Bueno vs Franco Roncadelli

Challenger Clay Buenos Aires challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

62.95%

Franco Roncadelli

Uruguay

37.05%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.78

Market probability

66.67% / 33.33%

Why This Prediction?

Gonzalo Bueno is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1701 vs 1650), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1720 vs 1677) and more wins on clay courts (103 vs 64).

Player Comparison

1701.2 Elo 1650.0

1720.4 Elo (surface) 1676.7

107 Wins (Challenger) 64

103 Wins (surface) 64

9 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.749 Dominance ratio 0.961

175 Rank 264

22.5 Age 26.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gonzalo Bueno

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Franco Roncadelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gonzalo Bueno Franco Roncadelli

1st Serve In %

61.3%

68.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.4%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

43.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

62.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

38.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gonzalo Bueno Franco Roncadelli

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

70.7%

Break Points Converted %

48.9%

56.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gonzalo Bueno 1 – 0 Franco Roncadelli

Clay Tigre CH · 2026-02-16

R16

Gonzalo Bueno #218

Franco Roncadelli #338

6-3 6-4

1 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 3

79 Service Points 58

40 First Serve In 38

27 First Serve Won 19

16 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gonzalo Bueno vs Franco Roncadelli — Prediction