ATP tennis predict — Goncalo Marques vs Petr Nesterov

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Goncalo Marques

Portugal

28.78%

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

71.22%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Petr Nesterov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1676 vs 1603), a higher Elo rating (1648 vs 1569) and more career match wins (39 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1569.1 Elo 1648.5

1602.9 Elo (surface) 1675.7

2 Wins (Challenger) 39

2 Wins (surface) 11

2 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.767 Dominance ratio 0.737

652 Rank 301

20.7 Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Goncalo Marques

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Goncalo Marques Petr Nesterov

1st Serve In %

—

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.1%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.0%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Goncalo Marques Petr Nesterov

Break Points Saved %

—

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.0%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Goncalo Marques and Petr Nesterov have never played each other.

Goncalo Marques vs Petr Nesterov — Prediction