ATP tennis predict — Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Samuele Pieri

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Belgium

58.37%

Samuele Pieri

Italy

41.63%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.81

Market probability

66.90% / 33.10%

Why This Prediction?

Gilles Arnaud Bailly is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1524 vs 1474), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1515 vs 1481) and a stronger return game (39.5% vs 34.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1523.9 Elo 1474.2

1514.9 Elo (surface) 1480.8

20 Wins (Challenger) 14

18 Wins (surface) 14

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.959 Dominance ratio 0.886

230 Rank 400

20.8 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Samuele Pieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly Samuele Pieri

1st Serve In %

64.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.26

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.3%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

41.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly Samuele Pieri

Break Points Saved %

76.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

61.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0 – 0 Samuele Pieri

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Samuele Pieri #400

Gilles Arnaud Bailly #230

6-2 6-3

0 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 49

32 First Serve In 25

22 First Serve Won 22

11 Second Serve Won 16

8 Break Points Saved 1

11 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Samuele Pieri — Prediction