ATP tennis predict — Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Norbert Gombos

Challenger Clay Prague 2 challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Belgium

26.41%

Norbert Gombos

Slovakia

73.59%

Average Odds

2.04 / 1.71

Market probability

45.60% / 54.40%

Why This Prediction?

Norbert Gombos is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1670 vs 1498), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1672 vs 1484) and more wins on clay courts (173 vs 18).

Player Comparison

1497.8 Elo 1670.4

1484.4 Elo (surface) 1672.3

20 Wins (Challenger) 328

18 Wins (surface) 173

6 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.959 Dominance ratio 1.174

230 Rank 424

20.9 Age 36.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Norbert Gombos

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–1L · 92.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–8L · 11.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly Norbert Gombos

1st Serve In %

64.8%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

59.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.3%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly Norbert Gombos

Break Points Saved %

76.0%

70.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0 – 0 Norbert Gombos

Clay Prague 2 challenger · 2026-08-18

1. round

Norbert Gombos #424

Gilles Arnaud Bailly #230

4-6 6-1 6-4

2 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 1

82 Service Points 83

60 First Serve In 45

36 First Serve Won 30

7 Second Serve Won 21

6 Break Points Saved 6

12 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Norbert Gombos — Prediction