ATP tennis predict — Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Calvin Hemery

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · 1. round 19:30

Predicted probability

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Belgium

47.07%

Calvin Hemery

France

52.93%

Average Odds

1.72 / 1.98

Market probability

53.51% / 46.49%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1489.2 Elo 1592.6

1497.9 Elo (surface) 1603.7

21 Wins (Challenger) 227

19 Wins (surface) 145

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.063 Dominance ratio 0.900

244 Rank 328

21.0 Age 31.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Calvin Hemery

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly Calvin Hemery

1st Serve In %

64.8%

66.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

46.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.3%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

35.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly Calvin Hemery

Break Points Saved %

76.0%

63.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0 – 1 Calvin Hemery

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Calvin Hemery #328

Gilles Arnaud Bailly #244

6-0

0 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 4

16 Service Points 21

10 First Serve In 11

4 First Serve Won 9

0 Second Serve Won 5

2 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Clay Lisbon CH · 2023-10-02

R16

Calvin Hemery #221

Gilles Arnaud Bailly #646

7-5 6-7(4) 6-1

10 Aces 0

7 Double Faults 2

112 Service Points 122

74 First Serve In 67

52 First Serve Won 47

17 Second Serve Won 21

10 Break Points Saved 11

12 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Calvin Hemery — Prediction