ATP tennis predict — Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Belgium

40.52%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

59.48%

Average Odds

1.89 / 1.83

Market probability

49.19% / 50.81%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Barrena is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1618 vs 1470), a higher Elo rating (1592 vs 1470) and a stronger return game (37.9% vs 34.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1469.8 Elo 1591.6

1470.5 Elo (surface) 1618.5

20 Wins (Challenger) 80

18 Wins (surface) 80

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.034 Dominance ratio 1.027

244 Rank 235

21.0 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

64.8%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.3%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

76.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gilles Arnaud Bailly 0 – 0 Alex Barrena

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Gilles Arnaud Bailly #244

Alex Barrena #235

7-6 6-3

0 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

76 Service Points 61

45 First Serve In 34

27 First Serve Won 19

16 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex Barrena — Prediction