ATP tennis predict — Gijs Brouwer vs Yanki Erel

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 15:30

Predicted probability

Gijs Brouwer

Netherlands

45.99%

Yanki Erel

Turkey

54.01%

Average Odds

3.19 / 1.32

Market probability

29.27% / 70.73%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1549.8 Elo 1561.8

1557.6 Elo (surface) 1605.6

94 Wins (Challenger) 41

69 Wins (surface) 33

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.926 Dominance ratio 0.929

1156 Rank 280

30.4 Age 25.9

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gijs Brouwer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gijs Brouwer Yanki Erel

1st Serve In %

67.4%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.3%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.2%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.3%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gijs Brouwer Yanki Erel

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.0%

52.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.8%

29.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gijs Brouwer 0 – 0 Yanki Erel

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Gijs Brouwer #1156

Yanki Erel #280

4-1

1 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 0

21 Service Points 15

17 First Serve In 12

13 First Serve Won 7

1 Second Serve Won 1

2 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.2 Average Odds 1.3

Gijs Brouwer vs Yanki Erel — Prediction