ATP tennis predict — Gijs Brouwer vs Matteo Martineau

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Gijs Brouwer

Netherlands

44.81%

Matteo Martineau

France

55.19%

Average Odds

2.50 / 1.49

Market probability

37.34% / 62.66%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Martineau is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (67.1% vs 52.0% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1608 vs 1561) and fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.28).

Player Comparison

1554.6 Elo 1512.7

1561.0 Elo (surface) 1607.8

96 Wins (Challenger) 150

71 Wins (surface) 84

6 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.852 Dominance ratio 1.093

909 Rank 292

30.5 Age 27.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gijs Brouwer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gijs Brouwer Matteo Martineau

1st Serve In %

67.4%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.3%

42.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.2%

41.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.3%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gijs Brouwer Matteo Martineau

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.0%

27.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

60.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.8%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gijs Brouwer 1 – 1 Matteo Martineau

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Gijs Brouwer #909

Matteo Martineau #292

6-2 3-6 7-6

4 Aces 12

4 Double Faults 10

95 Service Points 112

72 First Serve In 67

48 First Serve Won 46

12 Second Serve Won 20

7 Break Points Saved 5

10 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Brest CH · 2023-10-23

Q2

Matteo Martineau #303

Gijs Brouwer #171

3-6 6-3 6-4

12 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 103

56 First Serve In 72

42 First Serve Won 50

17 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 9

5 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Forli 2 CH · 2022-01-10

Q2

Gijs Brouwer #367

Matteo Martineau #336

6-2 6-3

3 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 2

41 Service Points 78

30 First Serve In 51

26 First Serve Won 32

7 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gijs Brouwer vs Matteo Martineau — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Gijs Brouwer — Last 10

Matteo Martineau — Last 10