ATP tennis predict — Gianmarco Ferrari vs Mykyta Mashtakov

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:10

Predicted probability

Gianmarco Ferrari

Italy

74.02%

Mykyta Mashtakov

Ukraine

25.98%

Average Odds

1.60 / 2.21

Market probability

58.01% / 41.99%

Why This Prediction?

Gianmarco Ferrari is the favorite because he has more career match wins (30 vs 2), a higher Elo rating (1402 vs 1386) and a stronger serve (61.1% vs 42.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1402.4 Elo 1386.2

1447.2 Elo (surface) 1391.3

30 Wins (Challenger) 2

24 Wins (surface) 2

7 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.959 Dominance ratio 0.824

456 Rank 654

25.8 Age 27.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gianmarco Ferrari

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Mykyta Mashtakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gianmarco Ferrari Mykyta Mashtakov

1st Serve In %

58.4%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

51.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.7%

36.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.3%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

37.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gianmarco Ferrari Mykyta Mashtakov

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

46.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

31.0%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gianmarco Ferrari 0 – 0 Mykyta Mashtakov

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-10

qualification - round of 16

Mykyta Mashtakov #654

Gianmarco Ferrari #456

6-2 6-7 6-0

5 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 1

99 Service Points 86

57 First Serve In 52

34 First Serve Won 37

16 Second Serve Won 22

12 Break Points Saved 5

18 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Gianmarco Ferrari vs Mykyta Mashtakov — Prediction