ATP tennis predict — Gianmarco Ferrari vs Filippo Moroni

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Gianmarco Ferrari

Italy

60.04%

Filippo Moroni

Italy

39.96%

Average Odds

1.69 / 2.05

Market probability

54.81% / 45.19%

Why This Prediction?

Gianmarco Ferrari is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (63.7% vs 58.2% of service points won), more wins on clay courts (27 vs 4) and fewer double faults per game (0.07 vs 0.13).

Player Comparison

1471.8 Elo 1523.9

1490.6 Elo (surface) 1570.7

33 Wins (Challenger) 11

27 Wins (surface) 4

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.998 Dominance ratio 1.157

488 Rank 864

26.0 Age 25.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gianmarco Ferrari

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Filippo Moroni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gianmarco Ferrari Filippo Moroni

1st Serve In %

58.4%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.7%

36.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.3%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

63.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

39.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

57.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gianmarco Ferrari Filippo Moroni

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

31.0%

58.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gianmarco Ferrari 0 – 1 Filippo Moroni

Clay Montechiarugolo CH · 2023-06-19

Q2

Filippo Moroni #883

Gianmarco Ferrari #418

7-6(3) 6-7(2) 6-4

1 Aces 2

8 Double Faults 4

111 Service Points 119

65 First Serve In 75

49 First Serve Won 48

25 Second Serve Won 25

5 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gianmarco Ferrari vs Filippo Moroni — Prediction