ATP tennis predict — Gianluca Cadenasso vs Lorenzo Angelini

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · R16 10:30

Predicted probability

Gianluca Cadenasso

Italy

82.30%

Lorenzo Angelini

Italy

17.70%

Average Odds

1.17 / 4.57

Market probability

79.62% / 20.38%

Why This Prediction?

Gianluca Cadenasso is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1650 vs 1408), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1659 vs 1426) and a stronger serve (60.2% vs 51.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1650.5 Elo 1407.9

1658.9 Elo (surface) 1425.7

29 Wins (Challenger) 5

29 Wins (surface) 5

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.111 Dominance ratio 0.899

222 Rank 569

22.0 Age 20.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gianluca Cadenasso

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Lorenzo Angelini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gianluca Cadenasso Lorenzo Angelini

1st Serve In %

66.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

65.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.43

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

59.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.8%

37.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.7%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gianluca Cadenasso Lorenzo Angelini

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

43.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gianluca Cadenasso 0 – 0 Lorenzo Angelini

Clay Bari challenger · 2026-09-30

R16

Gianluca Cadenasso #222

Lorenzo Angelini #569

5-7 6-3 6-0

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

43 First Serve Won 31

14 Second Serve Won 11

7 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.6

Gianluca Cadenasso vs Lorenzo Angelini — Prediction