ATP tennis predict — Gianluca Cadenasso vs Kai Wehnelt

Challenger Clay Catania challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Gianluca Cadenasso

Italy

70.57%

Kai Wehnelt

Germany

29.43%

Average Odds

1.33 / 3.14

Market probability

70.25% / 29.75%

Why This Prediction?

Gianluca Cadenasso is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1633 vs 1548), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1640 vs 1566) and a stronger return game (44.2% vs 32.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1632.6 Elo 1548.1

1639.8 Elo (surface) 1565.7

31 Wins (Challenger) 35

31 Wins (surface) 25

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.111 Dominance ratio 0.906

220 Rank 613

22.0 Age 30.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gianluca Cadenasso

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Kai Wehnelt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gianluca Cadenasso Kai Wehnelt

1st Serve In %

66.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

65.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.43

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.4%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

63.0%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

46.5%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

70.0%

41.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gianluca Cadenasso Kai Wehnelt

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

50.6%

48.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gianluca Cadenasso and Kai Wehnelt have never played each other.

Gianluca Cadenasso vs Kai Wehnelt — Prediction