ATP tennis predict — Gauthier Onclin vs Timofey Skatov

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Gauthier Onclin

Belgium

68.48%

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

31.52%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.60

Market probability

64.36% / 35.64%

Why This Prediction?

Gauthier Onclin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1681 vs 1406), a higher Elo rating (1653 vs 1631) and a stronger serve (66.0% vs 62.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1652.8 Elo 1630.6

1680.9 Elo (surface) 1406.0

82 Wins (Challenger) 145

40 Wins (surface) 19

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.224 Dominance ratio 1.091

169 Rank 149

25.5 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gauthier Onclin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Timofey Skatov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gauthier Onclin Timofey Skatov

1st Serve In %

60.1%

67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.7%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gauthier Onclin Timofey Skatov

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

47.9%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

46.8%

Break Points Converted %

53.0%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gauthier Onclin 0 – 1 Timofey Skatov

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-20

1. round

Gauthier Onclin #169

Timofey Skatov #149

2-6 6-2 6-3

4 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 2

78 Service Points 89

54 First Serve In 58

39 First Serve Won 34

11 Second Serve Won 16

7 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Clay Vicenza CH · 2025-05-26

R32

Timofey Skatov #233

Gauthier Onclin #232

6-1 7-6(4)

3 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 3

83 Service Points 65

53 First Serve In 41

34 First Serve Won 24

17 Second Serve Won 10

9 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gauthier Onclin vs Timofey Skatov — Prediction