ATP tennis predict — Garrett Johns vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Garrett Johns

USA

74.90%

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Brazil

25.10%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.57

Market probability

64.57% / 35.43%

Why This Prediction?

Garrett Johns is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1565 vs 1419), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1561 vs 1469) and a stronger serve (64.9% vs 60.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1564.9 Elo 1419.2

1560.5 Elo (surface) 1468.8

60 Wins (Challenger) 27

35 Wins (surface) 4

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.214 Dominance ratio 1.071

390 Rank 528

25.7 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Garrett Johns

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Garrett Johns Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

1st Serve In %

49.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

73.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.57

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.2%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.2%

64.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.5%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.1%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Garrett Johns Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

55.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Garrett Johns 0 – 0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-18

1. round

Garrett Johns #390

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos #528

2-6 6-4 3-2

1 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

70 Service Points 73

42 First Serve In 35

26 First Serve Won 20

12 Second Serve Won 18

7 Break Points Saved 3

13 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Garrett Johns vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos — Prediction