ATP tennis predict — Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · F 17:00

Predicted probability

Gabriele Piraino

Italy

44.49%

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

55.51%

Average Odds

2.43 / 1.51

Market probability

38.32% / 61.68%

Why This Prediction?

Petr Nesterov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1653 vs 1547), a higher Elo rating (1647 vs 1545) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1544.8 Elo 1646.8

1546.7 Elo (surface) 1653.0

33 Wins (Challenger) 37

27 Wins (surface) 28

7 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.906 Dominance ratio 0.745

404 Rank 364

22.7 Age 23.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gabriele Piraino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriele Piraino Petr Nesterov

1st Serve In %

63.2%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

55.6%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.0%

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.00

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.5%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

58.6%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.3%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriele Piraino Petr Nesterov

Break Points Saved %

42.9%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.6%

49.4%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gabriele Piraino 1 – 0 Petr Nesterov

Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · 2026-08-09

F

Gabriele Piraino #404

Petr Nesterov #364

6-1 7-6

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 3

69 Service Points 60

39 First Serve In 37

23 First Serve Won 20

15 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Lugano CH · 2026-02-23

Q2

Gabriele Piraino #355

Petr Nesterov #499

3-6 6-3 7-6(3)

2 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 1

103 Service Points 88

67 First Serve In 64

43 First Serve Won 45

19 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov — Prediction