ATP tennis predict — Gabriele Maria Noce vs Lorenzo Carboni

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:05

Predicted probability

Gabriele Maria Noce

Italy

23.04%

Lorenzo Carboni

Italy

76.96%

Average Odds

4.80 / 1.15

Market probability

19.33% / 80.67%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Carboni is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1395 vs 1368), more career match wins (26 vs 2) and a higher Elo rating (1374 vs 1351).

Player Comparison

1351.3 Elo 1374.2

1367.8 Elo (surface) 1394.6

2 Wins (Challenger) 26

1 Wins (surface) 16

2 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.824 Dominance ratio 0.971

850 Rank 481

30.8 Age 20.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gabriele Maria Noce

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Lorenzo Carboni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriele Maria Noce Lorenzo Carboni

1st Serve In %

—

75.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

38.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.2%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

62.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.08

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriele Maria Noce Lorenzo Carboni

Break Points Saved %

—

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

—

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

42.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.8%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gabriele Maria Noce 0 – 0 Lorenzo Carboni

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-09

qualification - 1. round

Lorenzo Carboni #481

Gabriele Maria Noce #850

6-1 4-6 7-6

1 Aces 3

9 Double Faults 4

92 Service Points 99

48 First Serve In 61

34 First Serve Won 42

16 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 4.8

Gabriele Maria Noce vs Lorenzo Carboni — Prediction