ATP tennis predict — Gabriele Crivellaro vs Federico Arnaboldi

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:05

Predicted probability

Gabriele Crivellaro

Italy

40.21%

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

59.79%

Average Odds

4.35 / 1.18

Market probability

21.34% / 78.66%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Arnaboldi is the favorite because he has more wins on clay courts (55 vs 2), more career match wins (67 vs 2) and a stronger return game (37.4% vs 33.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1442.3 Elo 1438.2

1472.3 Elo (surface) 1448.9

2 Wins (Challenger) 67

2 Wins (surface) 55

2 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.748 Dominance ratio 0.812

1359 Rank 519

19.6 Age 26.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gabriele Crivellaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriele Crivellaro Federico Arnaboldi

1st Serve In %

—

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

62.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.7%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriele Crivellaro Federico Arnaboldi

Break Points Saved %

—

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

—

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.7%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gabriele Crivellaro 0 – 0 Federico Arnaboldi

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-09

qualification - 1. round

Gabriele Crivellaro #1359

Federico Arnaboldi #519

3-6 6-1 7-6

6 Aces 8

6 Double Faults 4

95 Service Points 101

57 First Serve In 59

44 First Serve Won 37

18 Second Serve Won 20

5 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.3 Average Odds 1.2

Gabriele Crivellaro vs Federico Arnaboldi — Prediction