ATP tennis predict — Gabriel Diallo vs Kyrian Jacquet

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Gabriel Diallo

Canada

67.43%

Kyrian Jacquet

France

32.57%

Average Odds

1.80 / 2.00

Market probability

52.63% / 47.37%

Why This Prediction?

Gabriel Diallo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1751 vs 1550), a higher Elo rating (1718 vs 1690) and a stronger serve (74.5% vs 60.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1717.6 Elo 1689.9

1751.1 Elo (surface) 1550.5

74 Wins 22

48 Wins (surface) 10

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.963 Dominance ratio 1.132

99 Rank 120

24.9 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gabriel Diallo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Kyrian Jacquet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriel Diallo Kyrian Jacquet

1st Serve In %

67.1%

56.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

69.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.2%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.1%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.0%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.7%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

54.2%

Aces per Service Game

1.00

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriel Diallo Kyrian Jacquet

Break Points Saved %

58.8%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.4%

29.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

61.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.3%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gabriel Diallo 0 – 0 Kyrian Jacquet

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Gabriel Diallo #108

Kyrian Jacquet #121

6-7 6-3 6-2

5 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 4

87 Service Points 83

57 First Serve In 45

44 First Serve Won 33

18 Second Serve Won 19

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 5

25 Winners 18

32 Unforced Errors 37

1.8 Average Odds 2

Gabriel Diallo vs Kyrian Jacquet — Prediction