ATP tennis predict — Gabriel Debru vs Florent Bax

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Gabriel Debru

France

51.72%

Florent Bax

France

48.28%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.13

Market probability

56.35% / 43.65%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1575.5 Elo 1510.6

1476.4 Elo (surface) 1547.2

55 Wins (Challenger) 37

17 Wins (surface) 23

6 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.926 Dominance ratio 1.096

- Rank 247

20.6 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gabriel Debru

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Florent Bax

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-10.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriel Debru Florent Bax

1st Serve In %

64.8%

74.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.4%

85.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.4%

57.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.0%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

1.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabriel Debru Florent Bax

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

100.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.9%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

47.9%

27.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gabriel Debru 0 – 1 Florent Bax

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-29

R16

Gabriel Debru #-

Florent Bax #247

6-4 3-6 6-2

2 Aces 1

6 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 92

61 First Serve In 61

43 First Serve Won 41

11 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Blois CH · 2024-06-17

R16

Florent Bax #626

Gabriel Debru #416

7-6(4) 7-5

8 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 2

72 Service Points 65

42 First Serve In 44

41 First Serve Won 36

13 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gabriel Debru vs Florent Bax — Prediction