ATP tennis predict — Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Vadym Ursu

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 14:30

Predicted probability

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Romania

70.47%

Vadym Ursu

Ukraine

29.53%

Average Odds

1.36 / 2.03

Market probability

59.88% / 40.12%

Why This Prediction?

Gabi Adrian Boitan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1566 vs 1450), a higher Elo rating (1544 vs 1431) and a stronger serve (69.4% vs 56.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1544.1 Elo 1431.2

1566.0 Elo (surface) 1449.5

52 Wins (Challenger) 44

14 Wins (surface) 37

7 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.225 Dominance ratio 0.880

477 Rank 408

27.2 Age 29.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Vadym Ursu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabi Adrian Boitan Vadym Ursu

1st Serve In %

65.5%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.70

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.8%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabi Adrian Boitan Vadym Ursu

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.0%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gabi Adrian Boitan 0 – 0 Vadym Ursu

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-20

qualification - 1. round

Vadym Ursu #403

Gabi Adrian Boitan #512

3-6 7-6 6-1

6 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

44 First Serve Won 41

8 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Vadym Ursu — Prediction