ATP tennis predict — Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Lui Maxted

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Romania

41.92%

Lui Maxted

Great Britain

58.08%

Average Odds

2.46 / 1.49

Market probability

37.72% / 62.28%

Why This Prediction?

Lui Maxted is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1545 vs 1433), a higher Elo rating (1543 vs 1476) and a stronger return game (43.6% vs 34.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1476.3 Elo 1543.0

1432.7 Elo (surface) 1545.0

48 Wins (Challenger) 11

10 Wins (surface) 8

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.947 Dominance ratio 1.200

500 Rank 360

27.1 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Lui Maxted

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabi Adrian Boitan Lui Maxted

1st Serve In %

65.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.45

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.8%

69.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

57.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Gabi Adrian Boitan Lui Maxted

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.0%

61.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

54.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Gabi Adrian Boitan 0 – 1 Lui Maxted

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - 1. round

Gabi Adrian Boitan #500

Lui Maxted #360

6-1 6-1

5 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 5

37 Service Points 46

22 First Serve In 26

18 First Serve Won 12

11 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Roehampton challenger · 2026-08-20

QF

Lui Maxted #403

Gabi Adrian Boitan #441

7-5 6-4

5 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 5

64 Service Points 74

50 First Serve In 47

39 First Serve Won 38

7 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Lui Maxted — Prediction