ATP tennis predict — Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Franco Roncadelli

Uruguay

41.55%

Elias Ymer

Sweden

58.45%

Average Odds

6.06 / 1.11

Market probability

15.48% / 84.52%

Why This Prediction?

Elias Ymer is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (89 vs 0), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1575 vs 1538) and a stronger serve (63.2% vs 52.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1601.4 Elo 1621.2

1538.0 Elo (surface) 1574.8

6 Wins 149

3 Wins (surface) 77

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.771 Dominance ratio 0.859

237 Rank 212

26.6 Age 30.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Franco Roncadelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Franco Roncadelli Elias Ymer

1st Serve In %

68.4%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.5%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

43.1%

23.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.0%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.3%

24.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Franco Roncadelli Elias Ymer

Break Points Saved %

70.7%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

56.8%

39.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.8%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Franco Roncadelli 0 – 0 Elias Ymer

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Elias Ymer #204

Franco Roncadelli #267

6-4 6-3

0 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 3

57 Service Points 64

41 First Serve In 31

22 First Serve Won 25

11 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 4

8 Winners 18

14 Unforced Errors 23

1.1 Average Odds 6.1

Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer — Prediction