ATP tennis predict — Francisco Rocha vs Tiago Pereira

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · 1. round 17:30

Predicted probability

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

30.62%

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

69.38%

Average Odds

3.60 / 1.26

Market probability

25.93% / 74.07%

Why This Prediction?

Tiago Pereira is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1435 vs 1346), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1390 vs 1381) and a stronger serve (63.9% vs 55.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1346.2 Elo 1434.9

1380.7 Elo (surface) 1390.2

10 Wins (Challenger) 31

7 Wins (surface) 18

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.847 Dominance ratio 0.996

811 Rank 355

26.9 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francisco Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-18.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Rocha Tiago Pereira

1st Serve In %

59.4%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

39.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

51.6%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Rocha Tiago Pereira

Break Points Saved %

41.7%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.4%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francisco Rocha 0 – 0 Tiago Pereira

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Tiago Pereira #355

Francisco Rocha #811

6-4 7-5

3 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 4

67 Service Points 66

39 First Serve In 30

23 First Serve Won 22

18 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Francisco Rocha vs Tiago Pereira — Prediction