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Francisco Rocha vs Lui Maxted — Prediction

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

22.44%

Lui Maxted

Great Britain

77.56%

Average Odds

3.03  /  1.33

Market probability

30.50%  /  69.50%

Why This Prediction?

Lui Maxted is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1510 vs 1390), a higher Elo rating (1525 vs 1397) and a stronger return game (41.4% vs 37.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1396.7 Elo 1525.0
1389.7 Elo (surface) 1509.6
10 Wins (Challenger) 11
3 Wins (surface) 8
5 Last 15 form 8
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.907 Dominance ratio 1.085
854 Rank 394
27.0 Age 22.8
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francisco Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-18.

Lui Maxted

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Rocha Lui Maxted

1st Serve In %

59.4%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%
—

Aces per Service Game

0.32
—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

51.6%
69.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%
68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%
46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%
31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%
57.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.33
0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Rocha Lui Maxted

Break Points Saved %

41.7%
—

Break Points Converted %

30.0%
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.4%
61.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%
54.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francisco Rocha and Lui Maxted have never played each other.

Francisco Rocha — Last 10

L L L L L L L L W W

Lui Maxted — Last 10

L L W L W W W L W L