ATP tennis predict — Francisco Rocha vs Gonzalo Bueno

ATP Clay Estoril · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

13.61%

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

86.39%

Average Odds

4.76 / 1.16

Market probability

19.59% / 80.41%

Why This Prediction?

Gonzalo Bueno is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1604 vs 1357), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1630 vs 1393) and more wins on clay courts (97 vs 7).

Player Comparison

1356.9 Elo 1603.6

1393.4 Elo (surface) 1629.9

0 Wins 5

0 Wins (surface) 3

0 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.684 Dominance ratio 0.889

832 Rank 176

26.8 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francisco Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-18.

Gonzalo Bueno

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Rocha Gonzalo Bueno

1st Serve In %

59.4%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

51.6%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Rocha Gonzalo Bueno

Break Points Saved %

41.7%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

48.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.4%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francisco Rocha 0 – 0 Gonzalo Bueno

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-18

qualification - round of 16

Gonzalo Bueno #176

Francisco Rocha #832

6-4 6-4

4 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

77 Service Points 56

38 First Serve In 37

24 First Serve Won 27

17 Second Serve Won 12

11 Break Points Saved 2

14 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.8

Francisco Rocha vs Gonzalo Bueno — Prediction